id: 30901
Title: Simulation modeling of investment projects in the service sector.
Authors: Dzis V., Dyachynska O.
Keywords: simulation model, MathCAD, investments, tourism industry, risk factor, probability, histogram, critical intervals, errors.
Date of publication: 2022-05-05 21:43:18
Last changes: 2022-05-05 21:43:18
Year of publication: 2022
Summary: Scientific article is devoted to researching the possibility of developing a simulation model of an investment
project for a travel agency. In recent years, the tourism industry in the world is experiencing rapid development.
The development of the tourism industry requires new investments. The investor must assess the degree of risks,
the likelihood of profit or loss. It is noted that the most important advantage of simulation modeling is that it makes
it possible to study economic systems at the design stage. Due to this, simulation models can be used as a universal
tool in making appropriate decisions under conditions of uncertainty and taking into account those factors that are
difficult to predict and take into account, which is why simulation is so often used in the development of investment
projects. When assessing the risks of investment projects, the collection of information requires significant financial
expenses, is quite time-consuming, and sometimes impossible. The subject of the study is a set of the theoretical,
methodological and organizational problems related to the management decisions regarding the investment of
the projects in the field of tourism. The methodology is based on the stochastic simulation modeling of economic
processes. The aim of the study is to develop a simulation model for an investment project in the tourism sector,
which will allow the investor to appreciate the degree of the risk and the likelihood of return on the investment.
The article reveals the features of computer simulation in the MathCAD system. It is proved that it is convenient to
develop simulation models of investment projects in the MathCAD system. It has a powerful mathematical support,
remains one of the systems in which the description of the solution of mathematical problems is given with the
use of conventional mathematical formulas and symbols and does not require special training in programming.
The simulation model of the investment project of the travel agency was developed in the MathCAD system.
Statistical processing of the results of the experiments with the model has been carried out. The necessity of the
detailed study of critical intervals of the histogram at the transition from loss-making to profitable NPV values has
been substantiated. Based on the results of simulation experiments with the model, the errors of the model were
estimated, the law of NPV random variables distribution was established. The developed simulation model allows
the investor to estimate the risk factor, the probability of profit or loss from the investment, to assess the possible
uncertainty of the results of their own decision to invest in the project. Conclusion: the simulation model of the
investment project built and investigated in MathCAD system allows investor to estimate the risk factor, probability
of profit or loss for choosing the optimal pricing policy and optimization of economic strategy of tourist agency.
URI: http://socrates.vsau.org/repository/getfile.php/30901.pdf
Publication type: Статті у зарубіжних наукових фахових виданнях (Copernicus та інші)
Publication: Three Seas Economic Journal. 2022. Vol. 3. № 1. Р. 68-77.
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Published by: Адміністратор
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